NPAC Forum > General Discussion
Most print papers dead within 5 years
Warren Toda:
A ten-year US study, to be released in January 2012, looks at the "digital future" for that country.
--- Quote ---“After 10 years of studies, we find that the strengths as well as the consequences of technology are more profound than ever,” said Jeffrey I. Cole, director of the Center for the Digital Future. “At one extreme, we see users with the ability to have constant social connection, unlimited access to information, and unprecedented buying power. At the other extreme, we find extraordinary demands on our time, major concerns about privacy and vital questions about the proliferation of technology – including a range of issues that didn’t exist 10 years ago.
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One of the study's conclusions:
--- Quote ---Most print newspapers will be gone in five years.
“Circulation of print newspapers continues to plummet, and we believe that the only print newspapers that will survive will be at the extremes of the medium – the largest and the smallest,” said Cole. It’s likely that only four major daily newspapers will continue in print form: The New York Times, USA Today, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal. At the other extreme, local weekly newspapers may still survive.
“The impending death of the American print newspaper continues to raise many questions,” Cole said. “Will media organizations survive and thrive when they move exclusively to online availability? How will the changing delivery of content affect the quality and depth of journalism?”
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The only people who say print papers have a future are (1) newspaper owners and (2) advertisers who rely on newspapers.
There's no solution if you love the problem.
Warren Toda:
Study released this week by Pew Research Center looked at the private financial data of 38 US newspapers. For those with short attention spans, here's the short version.
Some doomy and gloomy quotes:
--- Quote ---...the papers studied are losing seven dollars in print advertising for every one dollar they are gaining in new digital revenue...
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--- Quote ---Another executive told us bluntly, "There's no doubt we're going out of business right now."
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--- Quote ---Yet another [newspaper executive] said flatly, "The newspaper industry cannot sustain its existing cost structure now. It's a fact of life. It is going to have to get leaner than what it is."
Then he described what he imagined as the news product of the future at newspapers: "You can think of it in terms of probably one-third original content, one-third blogger opinions and one-third community journalism [generated from] outside."
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--- Quote ---Another [newspaper executive] flatly predicted ... that some papers would go out of business in the near future, that surviving dailies would go to three-day-a-week distribution and that most of newsrooms would shrink even further than they have already.
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Ken Gigliotti:
The core of our business is still information . The main problem is , former ownership sold “high” . The two major chains realized early that “advertising based media” had no future and acted decisively . The valuations for the businesses are the biggest problem for ownership . The debt on these companies is high .When they drop to fair value , the strong print business , Thursday , Friday and Saturday , and with the online creating a constant stream of information , even Warren Buffett might find value.
There is no lack of interest in our product , that being news. News can only be gathered one way . I think if we see ourselves as an information business we will just be absorbed into other information business . Television and radio are all suffering the same loss of revenue .
The universities and colleges are now producing multi media reporters , change is coming but news gathering can only be done with boots on the ground . The weakness of the anonymous internet is manipulation . I don't think we are far away from political parties and what ever other dark forces will begin to find a foothold and people will seek legitimate journalism brands. We just have to find it ourselves and abandon the old formulas . There is movement already .
Our goal should be to inform , enable and enrich our readers .These are lofty corrections . New media will allow for creating and merging many media in a manageable form without the infrastructure of TV networks , and large press based companies .
I think that the vision and ideas of writers and photographers will still be able to capture the imaginations of readers , this will never go out of style. Wages will drop , this has only been at high pay level since the mid 1980's . Ask anyone in your newsrooms that are ready to retire what kind of maney thay made in 1980. I made $200 a week in 1979.
We have to look at content , find young readers , new Canadians ,and hold on to middle aged and older readers. Online products , many products streaming from one integrated newsroom.
The monopoly of ideas has to change , the collective creativity is overwhelming our craft . A craft that fears change as much as our business needs to find a higher level to exist on . WE cannot stay the same , travel the same ground and repeat the same stories . Our readers want what they have always wanted , they want surprises . Our product is the letter they used to receive from an old friend everyday. It is not just about news , sports and weather.
Moe Doiron:
One should keep in mind that the fledgeling online revenue is heavily burdened by the money-losing weight of the printed paper. Almost half of the costs related to producing a newspaper go to paying for paper, ink, print plant contracts, trucking, circulation and the good old paperboy (person). They don't make that back by selling papers they offset that expense with ad sales ... which just so happens to be the shrinking part of the business.
The demise of print may not be the bad news in this story, it may very well be the good news.
Imagine a news operation where there are only journalists and advertising sales. As Ken put it "boots to the ground" people. A new business model that costs far less to produce, with the same number of journalists.
Jason Franson:
This is where the problem lies.
"You can think of it in terms of probably one-third original content, one-third blogger opinions and one-third community journalism [generated from] outside."
I think most bean counter attitudes are that it will take half a newsroom to get done what we need. We don't need much staff if we can get free hand in citizen journalism. I see it happening now at local dailies, terrible hand in photos of non news events getting play, while staffers get the axe.
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